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Throwing the Kitchen Sink at a Conservative Thesis

Four key takeaways you will learn from this paper:

  • Almost 10 years into an economic recovery, most of what is going on seems extremely pro-cyclical, meaning we are borrowing from our future to make the present look better.

  • Many of these policies and trends cannot continue indefinitely, and when they stop, the world we are left with will look very different. The recent market correction brought prices away from record highs, but it did not resolve (nor could it) the numerous global trends that could lead global markets to a recessionary downturn in the not-too-distant future.

  • The amount of debt on national, corporate, and personal balance sheets, coupled with challenges in demographics, inequality, central bank policy and tax cuts, means the next downturn could be at least as bad as the historical average, which is -37%. Remember, however, that in investing, nothing is ever “bad” or “good.”

  • Facts are only bad or good relative to how you’ve positioned yourself. 

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